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Adolf Agafonov
Adolf Agafonov

A Guide to Practical Econometrics: Data Collection, Analysis, and Application (PDF Download)



Practical Econometrics: Data Collection, Analysis, and Application




Econometrics is the science and art of using statistical methods to analyze economic data and answer economic questions. It is a powerful tool for understanding how the world works, testing economic theories, evaluating policies, and making predictions. Econometrics can help us answer questions such as:




practicaleconometricshilmerpdfdownload


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  • How does education affect income?



  • What is the impact of minimum wage on employment?



  • How do exchange rates affect trade?



  • What are the determinants of inflation?



  • How does monetary policy affect output and prices?



However, econometrics is not easy. It requires a solid foundation of economic theory, mathematics, statistics, and computer skills. It also requires a careful selection and application of appropriate econometric tools, as well as a clear interpretation and communication of the results. In this article, we will introduce some of the basic concepts and steps of econometric analysis, as well as some of the main sources of data for econometric research. We will also discuss how to choose and apply the appropriate econometric tools for different types of data and questions, and how to interpret and communicate the econometric results. Finally, we will introduce a practical guide for learning more about econometrics: Practical Econometrics: Data Collection, Analysis, and Application by Christiana E. Hilmer, Michael J. Hilmer, and Chandan Sharma.


What is econometrics and why is it useful?




Econometrics can be defined as the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to test hypotheses, estimate parameters, and make predictions. Econometrics can be divided into two main branches: theoretical econometrics and applied econometrics.


Theoretical econometrics is concerned with developing new statistical methods and techniques for analyzing economic data, as well as studying their properties and limitations. Theoretical econometrics provides the foundation for applied econometrics.


Applied econometrics is concerned with using existing statistical methods and techniques to analyze real-world economic data and answer real-world economic questions. Applied econometrics can be further classified into two types: descriptive analysis and causal inference.


Descriptive analysis aims to summarize and visualize the patterns and relationships in the data, without making any causal claims. For example, descriptive analysis can tell us how income varies across countries or over time, or how income is correlated with education or gender.


Causal inference aims to identify and estimate the causal effects of one variable on another variable, while controlling for other factors that may affect both variables. For example, causal inference can tell us how education affects income, or how minimum wage affects employment, after accounting for other factors such as ability or labor market conditions.


Econometrics is useful because it allows us to test economic theories, evaluate policies, and make predictions based on empirical evidence. Econometrics can help us answer questions that cannot be answered by pure theory or common sense alone. Econometrics can also help us avoid biases and errors that may arise from relying on intuition or anecdotal evidence.


The basic steps of econometric analysis




The process of conducting an econometric analysis can be summarized in the following steps:



  • Define the economic question and the hypothesis to be tested or the parameter to be estimated.



  • Collect or obtain the relevant data for the analysis.



  • Choose and apply the appropriate econometric tool or model for the data and the question.



  • Interpret and communicate the econometric results.



  • Check the validity and robustness of the results.



These steps are not necessarily sequential or independent. They may require iteration and feedback. For example, the choice of the econometric tool may depend on the availability and quality of the data, and the interpretation of the results may depend on the assumptions and limitations of the econometric tool. Therefore, econometric analysis requires careful planning, execution, and evaluation.


The main sources of data for econometric research




Data is the raw material for econometric analysis. Without data, we cannot test hypotheses, estimate parameters, or make predictions. Therefore, finding and obtaining good quality data is a crucial step in econometric research. There are many sources of data for econometric research, but they can be broadly classified into three types: experimental data, observational data, and simulated data.


Experimental data is data that is generated by conducting a controlled experiment, where one or more variables are manipulated by the researcher and the effects on other variables are measured. Experimental data is ideal for causal inference, because it allows us to isolate the causal effect of one variable on another variable, while holding other factors constant. However, experimental data is often difficult, costly, or unethical to obtain in economics, because it may require randomizing individuals or groups into different treatments, or intervening in complex and dynamic systems.


Observational data is data that is collected by observing or measuring existing phenomena, without any manipulation by the researcher. Observational data is more abundant and accessible than experimental data in economics, because it can be obtained from various sources such as surveys, censuses, administrative records, financial markets, social media, etc. However, observational data is less ideal for causal inference, because it may suffer from confounding factors that affect both the explanatory and the outcome variables, or from endogeneity problems such as reverse causality or omitted variables.


Simulated data is data that is generated by using a mathematical model or a computer program that mimics the behavior of a real system or process. Simulated data can be useful for testing new econometric methods or techniques, or for exploring hypothetical scenarios or counterfactuals. However, simulated data is not real data, and it may not reflect the true complexity and uncertainty of the real world.


How to choose and apply the appropriate econometric tools




Once we have defined our economic question and collected our data, we need to choose and apply the appropriate econometric tool or model to analyze our data and answer our question. There are many econometric tools and models available, but they differ in their assumptions, properties, and applicability. Therefore, we need to consider several factors when choosing an econometric tool or model:



  • The type and structure of our data: Is our data cross-sectional (observations at one point in time), time series (observations over time), panel (observations over time and across units), or spatial (observations across space)? Is our data continuous (taking any value within a range), discrete (taking only certain values), binary (taking only two values), ordinal (taking values with a natural order), nominal (taking values with no natural order), or categorical (taking values from a set of categories)? Is our data balanced (having equal number of observations for each unit or time period), unbalanced (having unequal number of observations for each unit or time period), complete (having no missing values), incomplete (having missing values), homogeneous (having similar characteristics across units or time periods), heterogeneous (having different characteristics across units or time periods), stationary (having constant mean and variance over time), non-stationary (having changing mean and variance over time), etc.?



  • The nature and purpose of our analysis: Are we interested in descriptive analysis or causal inference? Are we interested in testing hypotheses or estimating parameters? Are we interested in making predictions or evaluating policies? Are we interested in explaining variation or identifying relationships? Are we interested in estimating average effects or heterogeneous effects? Are we interested in estimating short-run effects or long-run effects? Are we interested in estimating direct effects or indirect effects?



  • The availability and validity of our assumptions: What are the assumptions required by each econometric tool or model? Are these assumptions realistic and plausible for our data and question? Can we test these assumptions empirically? Can we relax these assumptions if they are violated? How sensitive are our results to these assumptions?



The difference between descriptive and causal inference




As we mentioned earlier, econometric analysis can be classified into two types: descriptive analysis and causal inference. Descriptive analysis aims to summarize and visualize the patterns and relationships in the data, without making any causal claims. Causal inference aims to identify and estimate the causal effects of one variable on another variable, while controlling for other factors that may affect both variables.


Descriptive analysis is useful for exploring and understanding the data, but it cannot tell us whether one variable causes another variable, or whether there are other variables that influence both variables. For example, descriptive analysis can tell us that there is a positive correlation between income and happiness, but it cannot tell us whether income causes happiness, or whether happiness causes income, or whether there are other factors (such as health, education, or social support) that affect both income and happiness.


Causal inference is useful for testing and evaluating economic theories, policies, and predictions, but it requires more rigorous methods and assumptions than descriptive analysis. For example, causal inference can tell us that education causes income, but it requires us to control for other factors that may affect both education and income (such as ability, motivation, or family background), and to assume that there are no other confounding factors that we have not controlled for.


The common econometric models and methods




There are many econometric models and methods available for different types of data and questions, but some of the most common ones are:


Linear regression




Linear regression is a method of estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables by fitting a straight line to the data. Linear regression can be used for both descriptive analysis and causal inference, depending on the assumptions and techniques used. Linear regression is based on the following equation:


$$y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_i1 + \beta_2 x_i2 + ... + \beta_p x_ip + \epsilon_i$$ where $y_i$ is the dependent variable for observation $i$, $x_ij$ is the independent variable $j$ for observation $i$, $\beta_0$ is the intercept term, $\beta_j$ is the slope coefficient for independent variable $j$, and $\epsilon_i$ is the error term for observation $i$. The error term captures the variation in the dependent variable that is not explained by the independent variables.


Linear regression can be estimated using various methods, such as ordinary least squares (OLS), weighted least squares (WLS), generalized least squares (GLS), or maximum likelihood (ML). Linear regression can also be extended to handle various types of data and problems, such as multiple linear regression (when there are more than one independent variable), polynomial regression (when the relationship between the dependent and independent variables is nonlinear), or generalized linear models (when the dependent variable is not continuous or normally distributed).


Binary choice models




Binary choice models are methods of estimating the relationship between a binary dependent variable (taking only two values, such as 0 or 1) and one or more independent variables. Binary choice models can be used for causal inference, but they require more assumptions than linear regression. Binary choice models are based on the following equation:


$$y_i = \begincases 1 & \textif y_i^* > 0 \\ 0 & \textif y_i^* \leq 0 \endcases$$ where $y_i$ is the observed binary dependent variable for observation $i$, and $y_i^*$ is the latent continuous dependent variable for observation $i$. The latent variable captures the underlying propensity or probability of observing a positive outcome ($y_i = 1$), which depends on the independent variables:


$$y_i^* = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_i1 + \beta_2 x_i2 + ... + \beta_p x_ip + \epsilon_i$$ The error term follows a specific distribution, such as normal or logistic. Binary choice models can be estimated using maximum likelihood methods. Binary choice models can also be extended to handle various types of data and problems, such as multinomial choice models (when there are more than two possible outcomes), ordered choice models (when the outcomes have a natural order), or censored or truncated models (when some observations are not observed or not included in the sample).


Censored and truncated models




Censored and truncated models are methods of estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables when some observations are not observed or not included in the sample. Censored and truncated models can be used for causal inference, but they require more assumptions than linear regression or binary choice models. Censored and truncated models are based on the following equation:


$$y_i = \begincases y_i^* & \textif y_i^* \in [a,b] \\ a & \textif y_i^* b \endcases$$ where $y_i$ is the observed dependent variable for observation $i$, $y_i^*$ is the latent dependent variable for observation $i$, and $[a,b]$ is the interval of possible values for the dependent variable. The latent variable depends on the independent variables:


$$y_i^* = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_i1 + \beta_2 x_i2 + ... + \beta_p x_ip + \epsilon_i$$ The error term follows a specific distribution, such as normal or logistic. Censored and truncated models can be estimated using maximum likelihood methods. Censored and truncated models can also be extended to handle various types of data and problems, such as Tobit models (when the dependent variable is censored at one or both ends), Heckman selection models (when the sample selection is not random), or duration models (when the dependent variable is the time until an event occurs).


Panel data models




Panel data models are methods of estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables when the data is collected over time and across units (such as individuals, firms, countries, etc.). Panel data models can be used for causal inference, but they require more assumptions than cross-sectional or time series models. Panel data models are based on the following equation:


$$y_it = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_it1 + \beta_2 x_it2 + ... + \beta_p x_itp + u_it$$ where $y_it$ is the dependent variable for unit $i$ at time $t$, $x_itj$ is the independent variable $j$ for unit $i$ at time $t$, $\beta_0$ is the intercept term, $\beta_j$ is the slope coefficient for independent variable $j$, and $u_it$ is the error term for unit $i$ at time $t$. The error term can be decomposed into two components:


$$u_it = \alpha_i + v_it$$ where $\alpha_i$ is the unit-specific effect, which captures the unobserved heterogeneity across units, and $v_it$ is the idiosyncratic error, which captures the random variation within units. Panel data models can be estimated using various methods, such as fixed effects, random effects, or dynamic panel methods. Panel data models can also be extended to handle various types of data and problems, such as hierarchical or multilevel models (when there are nested units within units), spatial panel models (when there are spatial dependencies across units), or panel vector autoregression models (when there are multiple dependent variables that affect each other over time).


Time series models




Time series models are methods of estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables when the data is collected over time. Time series models can be used for causal inference, but they require more assumptions than cross-sectional or panel data models. Time series models are based on the following equation:


$$y_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_t1 + \beta_2 x_t2 + ... + \beta_p x_tp + u_t$$ maximum likelihood (ML), or generalized method of moments (GMM). Time series models can also be extended to handle various types of data and problems, such as non-stationary or integrated time series, cointegrated time series, vector autoregression (VAR) models, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) or generalized ARCH (GARCH) models, or state-space models.


How to interpret and communicate the econometric results




After we have chosen and applied the appropriate econometric tool or model to our data and question, we need to interpret and communicate the econometric results. This involves several steps:



  • Check the goodness-of-fit of the econometric model: How well does the model fit the data? How much of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables? How large are the residuals or errors of the model? Are there any outliers or influential observations that affect the model? Are there any patterns or trends in the residuals that indicate model misspecification?



  • Check the statistical significance and confidence intervals of the estimated parameters: How likely are the estimated parameters to be different from zero or some other value? How precise are the estimates? What is the range of plausible values for the parameters? How sensitive are the estimates to different assumptions or methods?



  • Check the economic significance and policy implications of the estimated parameters: How large are the estimated effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable? Are they consistent with economic theory or intuition? Are they relevant for economic decision-making or policy-making? What are the potential benefits or costs of changing one variable on another variable?



  • Check the validity and robustness of the econometric results: How reliable are the results? Do they hold under different specifications, methods, data sets, or assumptions? Are there any potential sources of bias or inconsistency in the results? Are there any alternative explanations or confounding factors for the results?



  • Report and present the econometric results: How do we summarize and display the results in a clear and concise way? What are the main findings and conclusions of the analysis? What are the limitations and caveats of the analysis? What are the directions for future research?



Interpreting and communicating econometric results requires both statistical and economic reasoning, as well as critical thinking and clear writing skills. It is important to be honest, transparent, and rigorous when reporting econometric results, and to acknowledge any uncertainties, limitations, or assumptions involved.


How to learn more about econometrics with a practical guide




If you want to learn more about econometrics and how to apply it to real-world data and questions, you may want to check out a practical guide that covers both theory and applications: Practical Econometrics: Data Collection, Analysis, and Appli


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